Republicans are at an Advantage in 2024
It’s no secret that Republicans are upset after Trump’s loss in the 2020 election. And they are 100% ready to bring something new to the table. SurveyMonkey found out that when asked, Republicans say that they are more likely to support Vice President Mike Pence in a primary in 2024, next is Donald Trump Jr., and then Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
Mike Pence: 40%
DT Jr.: 29%
Nikki Haley: 26%
*Other candidates were polled, but none of them are very prominent
It is somewhat obvious that Trump Jr. Is the worst possible choice for Republicans if they want to win the White House. If the Republican Party want to win the Presidency; they need to distance themselves from Donald Trump. So no, Trump will not pull a Grover Cleveland and win in 2024, having two inconsecutive terms. The other two choices are Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, but for a distinctive and powerful Obama–esque advantage, Republicans need to nominate Haley. She obviously is a woman and that is a great advantage. Yes, Hillary Clinton is a woman and got nominated but still lost, but that’s different. Clinton was unpopular in the primaries, especially with Bernie supporters, and needed super delegates to clinch the nomination. If Republicans can gather around Nikki Haley like they did around Trump in 2016, they can get on track to win the election.
What’s their strategy to win?
Haley is a very moderate Republican, so it will be easy to swing in unsure and independent voters to support her if she runs against a very progressive and Bernie-like candidate. The independent and blue-collar vote is undoubtably what lost Trump the election, so Republicans need to gather support from these voters so that they can win. In 2016, Trump appealed to these voters and broke the “blue wall”, flipping the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump lost this appeal, and with that he also lost all three of these states. I believe Nikki Haley appeals greatly to these voters, she’s fiscally conservative, but more liberal – but still conservative – on social issues than Donald Trump.
It is very helpful to Republicans if Democrats nominate Joe Biden for a second term in office. By then, he will be the oldest president in history, being 82 during the 2024 election. But Nikki Haley is young, if she were to be elected President, she would be 53 on inauguration day (which is also her birthday). She would not only be the first female President; she would be the first Indian American President as well.
And something to mention, Haley is from South Carolina, she can bring back the voters that Trump lost in the south, especially Georgia which is now a swing state. If the election is between Nikki Haley and Joe Biden, I would bet money that Haley would win with over 300 electoral votes. If she can flip Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, she doesn’t even need states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada assuming she keeps states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. But if she were to go against Biden, we can assume that she wins states like Nevada or Michigan and Wisconsin, and we can even put Minnesota in the tossup category.
How can the Democrats prevent this?
If the Democrats to win, they cannot nominate Biden for a second term, they need to find a fresh face. I believe that the best candidate for the Democratic Party is Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris. She would be the first female President in history, and she is already a national figure. Democrats also need to continue to rebuild the blue wall and continue to appeal to blue-collar voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and make sure the Republican Candidate doesn’t win any states within the blue-wall. Harris is the best shot at doing all of this. And for a bonus, if its Harris v. Haley, our 47th President will be a woman!
No matter who is nominated in 2024, Democrats need to be weary of how they approach the election, and they need to have a defense plan for states in the north and other states like Georgia and Arizona.